eCommerce and IPv6
November 12th, 2008
A new study by MI2G Global Risk Specialists points out highly integrated the world economy has become with the Internet. This underlies highlights the importance of the IPv6 Internet upgrades we have been working on are to ensure operational continuity of the Internet after IPv4 address exhaustion. Internet addressing, scaling, and operations directly impacts the global economy and will cause a major economic problem if we begin to lose the ability to communicate effectively. This study estimates that:
“Over 1% damage to GDP of a developed country such as Switzerland for every one week of Internet blackout is a reflection of how reliant modern business and society have become on Internet technologies. It is very interesting for us to observe that ETH has independently arrived at a similar approach to ourselves in developing economic damage models for large scale Internet attacks,” said, DK Matai, Executive Chairman, MI2G. “We are pleased to announce our intention to collaborate with Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zürich (ETH) to develop more refined economic damage models for Internet attacks and their lingering commercial fallout in the years ahead.”
Looking at this data and US GDP data we can see that the US produces 1.9% of GDP per week so a 1% loss would be over 1/2 of production that week – about 250 Billion a week in lost productivity. Our economy is increasing tied to eCommerce, unified communications, and netcentric business systems - making Internet continuity a business continuity issue. That’s why total global value of eCommerce is one of the trends I track on “IPv6 Trends and Adoption Timelines“
In a commercial sample scenario presented by ETH, when an Internet Service Provider with an annual revenue of CHF 2.81 billion is hit by 24 hours of Internet outage, the total economic loss is projected to be CHF 32.99 million or 1.2% of annual revenue. The breakdown is as follows:
1. Downtime Loss = Degraded Productivity + Loss of Revenue = CHF 292,000
2. Disaster Recovery = CHF 5.2 million
3. Liability = CHF 15 million
4. Customer Loss = CHF 12.5 million
The top Internet leadership has been warning us that IPv6 Transition is an Issue of Business Continuity:
“The technical stuff for IPv6 is done. IPv6 is ready. This is a business issue in the internet service industry. The ISP community round the world needs to pay attention… They are persisting in the ‘nobody is asking for this’ mentality. They are not valuing business continuity as they should. When they finally wake up, there is going to be a mad scramble for IPv6 and they won’t implement it properly”. - Vinton Cerf, September 30, 2008 interview with “The Times Online”.
In case you don’t know who Vinton “Vint” Cerf is, or if he is a reliable source, he’s the American computer scientist who is the “person most often called ‘the father of the Internet. His contributions have been recognized repeatedly, with honorary degrees and awards that include the National Medal of Technology, the Turing Award, and the Presidential Medal of Freedom. Vint is considered the leading candidate for the new Federal CTO position under the Obama administration.
What are other top leaders in the Internet community saying?
- “In order to sustain the impressive speed of Internet innovation and ensure a healthy Internet economy for the future, we recommend that content providers make their services available over IPv6,” - Axel Pawlik, Managing Director RIPE NCC.
- “.. With only 19% of IPv4 address space remaining, ARIN is now compelled to advise the Internet community that migration to IPv6 is necessary for any applications that require ongoing availability of contiguous IP number resources.” –ARIN Board 2007
- “If deployment <of IPv6> is delayed, the future growth and global connectivity of the Internet will be negatively impacted.” –Internet Society (ISOC) FAQ on IPv4/v6
Now, if a failure to migrate to IPv6 in time creates a major operational problem for the Internet that will impact the nation’s economic future, is IPv6 transition, as John Curran, ARIN Chairman and COO of ServerVault has warned the US Defense and Intel community, a “national security issue”? If so, we better have a timeline and a plan together for transition…








be Microsoft’s IPv6 expert Sean Siler!!! 
